EFL Cup Betting Strategy, Stats and History

The EFL Cup or English League Cup has been known by many different names over the years. Currently sponsored by Carabao, it has been previously known as the Capital One, Carling, Coca-Cola and Rumbelows Cup. EFL Cup today games should be very interesting.

Although not as prestigious as the FA Cup, it is seen as a major trophy and has been won by one of the Premier League’s ‘big 6’ for the last seven seasons.

League Cup, EFL Cup, Carabao Cup… it’s Hard to Keep up!

The League Cup has changed its name more times than Cheryl Cole (or whatever she’s called now!) but it is the secondary domestic cup competition in English men’s football. It can’t match the FA Cup for history, glamour, prestige or romance but, as the first piece of real silverware up for grabs each season, it retains a certain unique appeal.

As of the last season the League Cup is officially called the EFL Cup, or, for sponsorship purposes, the Carabao Cup. Throughout this article, we’ll use those terms interchangeably and, unless stated, facts and figures are correct as of the competition.

Perhaps the one area the League Cup is a match for the FA Cup is when it comes to betting. Especially as the competition wears on, the range of betting options is astounding, whilst an outright bet on the League Cup can give you a nice early payout in February. In this feature we take a closer look at the competition and as well as betting strategies we’ve also got some great trivia, along with a little bit of history and some information about the structure and format of how the cup plays out.

EFL Cup Betting Strategy

In a Champions League or Premier League game you can usually safely assume that both teams will be going all out to win the match at all costs. However, in the League Cup, this is not always the case and so this brings into play a number of factors.

As already said, there are lots and lots of options for when it comes to betting on the League Cup. From early ante post bets on who will win or make the final to specials such as who will be the top scorer or at what stage a side will get knocked out, you are spoiled for choice. Throw in hundreds of markets on each individual match and you really do have lots and lots to go at.

The League Cup features all 92 sides in the Premier League and English Football League (EFL) and with various byes that creates a cup of 83 matches. With games played from mid-August through to late February, that’s a lot of games to potentially win on and a lot of time to get involved with betting on the League Cup.

Make Hay in the Early Rounds

We’ve offered up the same tip, more or less, for every cup and competition and that is to try and delve into the games that fewer punters are interested in. If a lot of people are betting on an event then it is imperative that the bookie gets their odds right. An error on the League Cup final could cost them a lot of money and so they spend a lot of time and resources making sure their odds are as tight as possible.

In contrast, for the earlier rounds, where two League Two minnows may be going head to head, there is far less interest from most punters. As such the bookies have less incentive to invest the staff hours needed to consider all information and all angles. For the canny football bettor or the fan of one of the smaller sides armed with a little local knowledge, this can mean getting a value bet is a real possibility.

Resting Players

All professional English football sides have hugely congested fixture lists and, sadly, the League Cup is often not a priority, especially for the sides at the top of the footballing tree. Premier League clubs, in particular, are likely to rest players and give fringe squad members and youngsters some game time. It’s especially worth looking out for if a side has a big game either side of the EFL Cup fixture, or whether they are involved in a battle at either end of the table (in any division) as that is likely to be the focus of their attention and efforts.

In terms of team news, local news sources are a good option but increasingly many clubs announce their teams on Twitter. If you keep a very close eye on official Twitter feeds you may just be able to grab some surprise team news ahead of the bookies and the market.

Rotated Might Not Mean Weaker

Trying to assess the true odds and probabilities is a complex matter in sports betting, especially in a team sport like football. There are 11 players on each side and whilst you might think a changed team is a weaker one, the reality may be different.

Incoming players may well have a point to prove and could actually strengthen the side. Whilst a first team star, if picked, may not fancy a midweek away day against lower league opposition, a fringe player or young tyro may just think this is the perfect chance for them to impress the manager.

Another factor to consider is the strength in depth the top teams have nowadays. Sides like Manchester City can make a number of changes and still field a team of international footballers with a number of £30m+ players. This factor can be especially pertinent when both sides are likely to make changes, with the bigger, better side less likely to feel the impact of rotation.

League Cup Pedigree

For a variety of reasons some teams just seem to do better in the League Cup than others. More than likely this may have begun as simply coincidence and statistical variance. However, over the years, past performances can develop either confidence or trepidation and so what may have begun as meaningless “noise”, now becomes a “signal” worth thinking about.

Teams can enjoy periodic success in the EFL Cup and begin to believe it is a competition they can succeed in. On the other hand, a Premier League side who has endured a run of losses to lower league clubs may approach it with a sense of trepidation.